These days, my interest in readings on literature related to a profession called “project management” is leading me to some weird alleys in literary town.
Project management is the discipline of planning, organizing and managing resources to bring about the successful completion of specific project goals and objectives.
A project is a finite endeavor--having specific start and completion dates--undertaken to meet particular goals and objectives, usually to bring about beneficial change or added value. This finite characteristic of projects stands in contrast to processes, or operations--which are repetitive, permanent or semi-permanent functional work to produce products or services. In practice, the management of these two systems is often found to be quite different, and as such requires the development of distinct technical skills and the adoption of separate management.
The primary challenge of project management is to achieve all of the project goals and objectives while honoring the preconceived project constraints. Typical constraints are scope, time and budget. The secondary—and more ambitious—challenge is to optimize the allocation and integration of inputs necessary to meet pre-defined objectives.
Project management has been practiced since early civilization. Until 1900 projects were generally managed by creative architects and engineers themselves, among those for example Christopher Wren (1632–1723), Thomas Telford (1757-1834) and Isambard Kingdom Brunel (1806–1859)
It has been since the 1950s, which organizations started applying systemic project management tools and techniques to complex projects. The 1950s marked the beginning of the modern Project Management era. Project management was formally recognized as a distinct discipline arising from the management discipline.
At that time, two mathematical project scheduling models were developed. The "Critical Path Method" (CPM) developed in a joint venture by both DuPont Corporation and Remington Rand Corporation for managing plant maintenance projects. And the "Program Evaluation and Review Technique" or PERT, developed by Booz-Allen & Hamilton as part of the United States Navy's (in conjunction with the Lockheed Corporation) Polaris missile submarine program; These mathematical techniques quickly spread into many private enterprises.
As I was reading through such historical notes… my mind connected with a fictional discipline of Psychohistory as expounded in the novels and stories of
Isaac Asimov – in the foundation universe.
The Seldon Plan is the central theme of Isaac Asimov's Foundation Series of stories and novels, in which – the fictional character - Hari Seldon devised the Seldon Plan using an analytical technique he had mastered called psychohistory. His analysis worked only for large numbers of persons, working as a mob, unaware of their likely future, and gave probable paths for wider historical developments. Using this technique, Seldon deduced that it was certain the Galactic Empire was about to collapse, and usher in 30,000 years of barbarism.
The basic concept behind the plan was initially stated to be to reduce 30,000 years of Galactic barbarism, to under 1,000, and establish a Second Galactic Empire. This appears to have been the original version of the plan. Not because Seldon did not have wider aspirations, but because that was as far as it was originally worked out by Seldon himself.
Seldon obtained permission from the Emperor to start an Encyclopedia project, on a resource-poor planet towards the outer edges of the Galaxy. This project, called the 'Foundation', was to face a series of crises, each of which would force the Foundation to take a particular outcome. For example, a scarcity of metals forced the Foundation to co-operate and trade with neighbors. Each time a major crisis happened, a projection of Seldon would appear, and make comments on the situation that had just passed. After the first crises had passed, Seldon revealed the secret purpose of the Foundation was to re-create the Galactic Empire.
The Seldon Plan is statistical in nature. Future events are described as being probabilities. The variables, as discussed (see above) require a very large number of human beings, literally the population of the Galaxy, in order to reduce the ordinarily random events concerning human affairs to become amenable to statistical modeling.
Seldon's original address at the Decennial Convention on Trantor in 11178 G.E. was his proof, using the irreducibility theorem (or First Seldon Theorem) that the population of the people of the galaxy fell short of being a dynamic system which would be impossible to model adequately mathematically, the definition of 'just' most likely being one order of magnitude, though this is not discussed within the novels. At the time of this discovery, Seldon was not yet sure of either the scope or time constraints required to develop this discovery further.
Initially, Seldon was unable to make any headway on developing the model, as he was attempting to bring knowledge of all Galactic History, as well as considering all of the Galactic Population into modeling. Inadequate history and news reporting in the 12th millennium G.E. hindered his progress during his first year on Trantor, particularly during the period known as 'The Flight'.
After some consideration, at the end of the period of 'The Flight', Seldon realized that Trantor and its attendant worlds constituted an 'Empire in Miniature' on which he might model the past and future course of the Empire. Events in the rest of the Empire could be effectively modeled as second-order effects. Seldon often described this breakthrough as being 'the result of a turn of phrase' he encountered during The Flight.
During Seldon's lifetime, congruent points in the Plan were developed and modeled with enough accuracy to determine the critical points of inflexure that would set the Galaxy on the path of Foundation, and the Second Empire. In order to ensure that the First Foundation would be created, Seldon and the Psychohistorians of Trantor placed the Comissioner Linge Chen (then actual if not crowned Emperor) under intense scrutiny, as well as Mentalic influence in order to achieve their aims. This was a clear but vital breach in the limits of psychohistorical theory, as psychostatistics is meaningful only with planetary numbers, and not with individuals.
To me, the greatest challenge in any age would be to concoct, plan, execute and manage a plan like a Seldon plan!
To think of the challenges where the project execution cycle extends generations beyond the original planner and various disconnected “project managers” must take it to its logical conclusion.
Project Management tries to gain control over variables such as risk. Potential points of failure: Most negative risks (or potential failures) can be overcome or resolved, given enough planning capabilities, time, and resources. According to some definitions risk can also be categorized as "positive--" meaning that there is a potential opportunity, e.g., complete the project faster than expected
To properly control these variables a good project manager has a depth of knowledge and experience in these four areas (time, cost, scope, and risk), and in six other areas as well: integration, communication, human resources, quality assurance, schedule development, and procurement.
The risks to Seldon plan were great indeed. The plan came close to failure in Foundation and Empire because of the mutant called The Mule. Because the Mule had psychic powers of mind control, he did not fit the model of interactions psychohistory was based upon. The Mule could influence men at a distance, unlike Second Foundation agents, who required eye contact. The Mule was eventually lured to a remote planet to destroy the Second Foundation. However, in so doing, he left his main fleet, which was turned against him by Second Foundation agents in his absence, thus ending his rule.
Strange are the parallels that a wandering mind can draw and this one makes me wonder whether this was a vision or random neurons connecting with each in truly random ways…
